Ancient Markets

Market	Prob	Traders
When will there be a prediction market where payouts are pegged to a passive investment roughly comparable to sitting in a Vanguard index fund?		1
Which member of the Grace is 4 Guys Too Group Chat will have their wedding first?		1
How many approved therapies will the FDA's cell & gene therapy list at the end of 2023?		1
If Ron DeSantis is elected president in 2024, what will the average yearly inflation be between Jan 2025 and Jan 2029?		2
When will I finish my PhD		4
How many recently active Russian flag officers will emigrate from the Russia-aligned sphere before 2024?	NaN%	1
When will we see the first viable human case of in vitro gametogenesis?		2
What will be the level of philanthropic funding for nuclear issues in 2025?	30M	1
Who will be the Libertarian Party nominee for president in 2024?		3
If Manifold offers a Graphql API, how many users will it have from one week after launch to two weeks after launch?	4.9	5
Paired Market: In what year will Puerto Rico no longer be a US Territory?	2032	2
What month (starting Jan 2023) will the next Dresden Files book (Twelve Months) come out?	17	2
How many grandchildren will I have by 2072?	6	4
In what year will leaded aviation fuel be banned across all US states?	2036	3
When will the next mission to Saturn be launched?	2027	3
How many electoral votes will the winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election have?	295	2
How many electoral votes will the winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election have?		2
In what year will the Thwaites Glacier fully detach from Antarctica?		5
What size of army will Ukraine be limited to as result of cease-fire or treaty negotiations with Russia?		3
Will Moderna's mRNA vaccine for EBV be approved by 2025	39%	5
If Donald Trump is elected president in 2024, what will the average yearly inflation be between Jan 2025 and Jan 2029?		3
Conditional on a new Russian ruler in the next 12 months, who will it be?		1
Will anyone be charged for transporting migrants from GOP states to Democratic strongholds?	36%	10
When will the S&P 500 set a new all time high? [where n = months since July 2022]	19	9
How many unique users will my digital futarchy have on July 31st, 2023 if I name it "Nomic"?	75	7
Will James W. Head III still be a non-retired non-emeritus professor at Brown University when he reaches 80 years old?	59%	1
Will Foolish stream in the first 2 weeks of DSMP Season 2	74%	6
In how many days from 2022-07-18 will Manifold merge its GraphQL API?	501	5
Will Signal for Android reverse their decision to remove SMS support by end of Q2?	20%	4
Will the Māori Party be elected to the next New Zealand Parliament?	59%	3
Will Bongbong Marcos declare martial law in his first presidential term?	57%	5
Will The Book of Dust Volume Three by Philip Pullman be released in 2023?	36%	2
What is the best CSGO map?		3
What is the best NYC Bodega Order?		1
What is the Best Restaurant in Chicago?		3
Who is the Best Talk Show Host?		3
Will Reddit lower the subs requirements for their "Prediction Tournaments" before the end of 2023	72%	2
Will New Zealand change its flag by 2100?	55%	1
What is the Best Rock Climbing Destination in the USA?		3
Will scientists create artificial blood to be used on any patient by the end of 2024?	39%	1
What will TSMC market cap be at the end of 2027?		3
What will be the next compound tested by the Interventions Testing Program (ITP) shown to have a statistically significant effect on lifespan?		1
If the 2024 presidential race is Jen Psaki vs Donald Trump, then Jen Psaki will win	31%	1
Will Wayne Brown be re-elected as Auckland mayor?	47%	1
If the 2024 presidential race is Jen Psaki vs Nikki Haley, then Jen Psaki will win	45%	1
If the 2024 presidential race is Jen Psaki vs Mike Pompeo, then Jen Psaki will win	42%	2
When will Basic Post Scarcity Economy be achieved by a nation state?		9
If Boris is still the leader of the Tories, will they win a majority in the next general election?	31%	1
In what year will a 10yo girl in Ohio be able to get a legal in-state abortion?	2024	4
Among GitHub Copilot users, some fraction of their code is written by themselves and some generated by the model. In any population of users, what will be the highest fraction generated by the model as reported by a credible source by 2025?		4
If the 2024 presidential race is Kamala Harris vs Mike Pompeo, then Kamala Harris will win	55%	3
If the 2024 presidential race is Kamala Harris vs Nikki Haley, then Kamala Harris will win	51%	3
Will AI get ≥90% one-shot accuracy on Mintaka before 2024?	24%	7
How many State of AI Report 2022 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2023 report?		3
Will the Turkic States merge by 2100?	40%	2
When will any model achieve >=human performance on QuALITY?		5
Researchers become more convinced that allopregnanolone is an important regulator of brain anxiety states (at least as important as serotonin)	64%	4
If Sadiq Khan is the leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK general election, will the Labour Party win?	46%	2
Will the Hetchy Hetchy aqueducts be significantly sabotaged by Dec. 2030?	32%	2
Will a pongamia-derived food product (oil, beans, etc.) be available for mass-market human consumption in the USA by the end of 2023?	32%	5
Will Max have more than 15 papers accepted in journals with IF > 2 by the end of his PhD?	80%	5
Will there be a mobile consumer robot with an arm by 31st December 2024?	82%	5
Will Mike Lustgarten take rapamycin and finally post a YouTube video showing his Phenoage response to rapamycin by the end of 2026?	55%	2
Will Max have an h-index > 12 by the end of his PhD?	92%	2
Will PEP 554 graduate from provisional status?	57%	2
Zuranolone gets FDA approval for postpartum depression	67%	4
Will HeavenGames (heavengames.com) still exist as a site in 2030?	69%	2
Will Laura Gao (lauragao.ca) win an emergent ventures grant by the end of 2025?	59%	2
Will there be QuantumScape batteries in VW vehicles by 2024?	10%	3
Will a prior or current Congress person, a white house/cabinet official/high ranking Government official, or a high ranking national party(DNC or RNC) official win the 2024 election.	80%	4
Will an independent RCT study evaluating Silexan for anxiety find a standardized effect size greater than 0.5?	28%	8
Will any transfer learning model, trained for any amount of time on one Atari environment, outperform the median human learning curve on most other Atari environments when transferred by 2026?	59%	2
Will I be alive through 2052?	88%	5
Will Julian Assange spend spend over three days in solitary confinement before 2024?	71%	4
Will there be a widely commercially available Cryonics provider that is using aldehyde-stabilized brain preservation protocol by 2025?	39%	2
Will the UK change the Gender Recognition Act (GRA) by the end of 2023?	23%	4
Will there be a marriage between a TKS'er and a Thiel Fellow sometime before 2030?	54%	2
If I buy a Pacaso home, will I eventually come to regret it within 2 years of purchase?	39%	12
Will at least one new Thiel Fellow from the fellows cohort of 2022 come from The Knowledge Society? (tks.world)	52%	2
Will the East African Federation legally exist by January 1st, 2030?	17%	10
Will I move out of state by the end of 2023?	52%	2
Will the 5 year survival rate of glioblastoma (GBM) exceed 10% by June 18 2032?	50%	2
Will there be smart contract bounties for formalized mathematics on a blockchain before May 2024	57%	3
Will the crossover point between South Korean and Israeli births happen this decade?	41%	2
Will I be eligible to vote in the next Labour leadership election?	98%	2
The scientific consensus is still that allopregnanolone works by modulating GABA receptors in a way importantly different from benzodiazepines	54%	5
Will Max get a permanent position with a research focus at a university within 5 years of finishing his PhD?	74%	3
The Floor Valuation for RAREPEPEs Last sale market cap will exceed $420,420,420 with one year. Currently (Last sale market cap: $261,383,148) According to Pepe.wtf	93%	4
[Secret Histories] Will final release of Lucid Tarot indicate that Madrugad has Lantern as a principle	57%	3
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election be either equal to or greater then 165 cm in height?	80%	5
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election be either equal to or greater then 182 cm in height?	53%	3
Will BTC dominance go above 50% before 2025?	42%	10
Will the real median Austin TX house price decline by 30% in the next two years?	18%	18
Will TommyInnit stream in the first 2 weeks of DSMP Season 2	44%	7
Will Tanium go public by 2024?	44%	4
On Election Day, what will 538 say Joe Biden's approval rating is?	44%	11
In the UK, will the tax burden on any decile increase by more than 1pp against what was expected, before the next election?	60%	3
Will Carroll ISD display additional "In God We Trust" signs other than the ones that were already donated by Patriot mobile? (by June 1st 2023)	58%	8
Will Justin Medeiros win the 2023 Crossfit Games?	63%	3
Will the UK Government raise corporation tax by more than 1pp compared to expected levels before the next election? (Including by stealth raises)	41%	2
If the SNP drops more than 20% within 3 weeks before 2024, will the % drop of Tesla be more than 1.5x of the % drop of Coke over the first 3 weeks of the afore-mentioned drop?	78%	3
Will the Liberal Party form the next Canadian government?	40%	4
If weed is not legalised for sale in England, will the Conservatives form the Government after the next election?	45%	4
Will the reconstruction of Notre-Dame Cathedral be completed before the 2024 Olympics in Paris?	27%	12
Will Liang Mong-Song work at a semiconductor company other than SMIC within the next 5 years?	63%	2
Will more than 50% of UK students apply to university after getting their results, in any year before the next election?	41%	2
Will the UK give Ukraine more than $10Bn (in cash, not including imports) before the next election?	25%	4
Will Penny be brought back to life in Season 9 of RWBY	55%	2
Will the California Remove Voter Approval Requirement for Public Low-Rent Housing Projects Amendment (2024) pass?	43%	4
Will the ISS still be in operation at the start of 2029?	65%	9
Will the ISS still be in operation at the start of 2026?	87%	8
Will Arnav Shah win EITHER an Emergent Ventures or Thiel Fellowship by 2028?	50%	2
Will any of the following: me, LaprasIRL, ersatzyork, RealLPerezLA have children within the next five years?	79%	3
Will Lada Nuzhna have a higher google search volume than Laura Deming by 2030?	25%	4
Will any past/current student from the University of Washington Robinson Center (University of Washington early entrance program & UW Academy for Young Scholars) win a Thiel Fellowship OR an Emergent Ventures grant by the end of 2027?	33%	2
Will a technocrat be elected US president by 2040?	45%	4
What will Tucker Carlson's 2024 campaign slogan be??		1
Will Jetson sell >1000 ONE units by the end of 2025	71%	1
Will Jetson deliver >500 units by 2025	45%	1
How many growth/marketing pomodoros before Emile.chat crosses >=$200 monthly recurring revenue?	75	2
UK Private Omicron Vaccination: Which of the following will happen?		1
Will a SOTA LM be trained on 10x more data points than Chinchilla, proving data-set scaling vs. parameter scaling?	45%	1
Will the S&P/Case-Schiller U.S. National Home Price Index (CSUSHPINSA) Be Below 215.0 by June 1st, 2024?	44%	2
Home prices in most US cities will be at February 2020 prices by September of 2024	66%	1
Rent prices will begin decreasing in December of 2022 in most US cities. Rents will continue to decrease for 3 years.	34%	3
Will the Adidas Backpack I bought last till Nov. 1 2026? (4 years from purchase)	37%	2
Will Joe Rogan ever be elected President?	3%	8
If Scotland leaves the UK, will they join NATO within 2 years?	65%	4
Will I start using Mastodon before 2024 (EOY 2023)?	51%	6
Will the VLA15 Lyme Disease vaccine "pass" its phase 3 human trial?	60%	8
Will Aeroflot's market capitalization exceed 102 billion Rubles on 30th June 2023?	51%	1
Will Aeroflot Group carry more than 7.2 million passengers in Q2, 2023?	54%	3
Will the winner of the 2024 Presidential election posses a postgraduate degree at the time of election	62%	5
Will Amy Klobuchar LOSE the 2024 Presidential election for Democrats?	9%	12
IF in 2030, atmospheric CO2 is 435-440 ppm, what will be the global temperature anomaly in 2030?	1	3
Who will be on Twitter's new content moderation board?		3
Will homicides return to pre-BLM levels by 2030?	43%	5
Will the next “public health emergency of int’l concern” be preceded by a matching simulation?	63%	5
Manifold will adopt OpenID Connect as authentication system before 2025?	55%	6
Will any US city besides NYC/NJ achieve transit ridership >50% by 2030	14%	4
Will Kalshi have more than 1000 active markets by the end of 2023?	13%	5
Will the US have a deadline in place to eliminate the minting of pennies by the end of 2026?	31%	7
Will Nina Turner run for president in 2024?	43%	6
If the 2024 presidential race is Gavin Newsom vs Ron Desantis, then Gavin Newsom will win	49%	7
In what year will the next great financial crisis in the US occur?		5
By 2024, will I believe that most 'impact projects' should issue an hypercert?	56%	2
What will be Ethereum's supply at end of 2023?	120M	2
Will a new Doctor Who spinoff be announced in 2024?	61%	1
By 2030, will the FDA approve any drug in combination with a checkpoint blockade therapy that substantially reduces immune escape?	45%	3
Will this pre-print paper (neurological side-effects of covid vaccines) pass peer-review and be published in a journal with impact factor >2?	5%	5